AA 385 · MIA → LIM

took off 3:59 PM ET · expected to land 9:15 PM -05 (scheduled 3:48 PM ET → 9:45 PM -05)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LIM more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIM?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIM

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

LIM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 385 · MIA → LIM

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIM?