Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 1855 · JFK → STI
departs 1:37 PM ET · arrives 6:23 PM AST
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 11/10 16%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 27%
Fri 11/13 22%
Sat 11/14 17%
Sun 11/15 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at STI more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at STI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STI?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
STI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.