Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1855 · JFK → STI
departs 1:36 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM AST
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 11/10 16%
Wed 11/11 9%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 22%
Sat 11/14 17%
Sun 11/15 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at STI more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at STI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STI?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JFK that day
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STI
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt
Ceiling 2,900 ft
Visibility 8 mi
Precip 0.29 in
STI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.