Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Today
DL 1856 · DFW → MSP
departs 3:04 PM CT · arrives 5:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 11/12 18%
Fri 11/13 16%
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.