Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
DL 1856 · DFW → MSP
departs 3:03 PM CT · arrives 5:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 11/12 18%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.