Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 2461 · ATL → DAY
departs 2:07 PM ET · arrives 3:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 11/10 12%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 12%
Fri 11/13 11%
Sat 11/14 13%
Sun 11/15 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DAY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAY?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into DAY at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAY (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.