Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2461 · ATL → DAY
departs 2:07 PM ET · arrives 3:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 11/10 12%
Wed 11/11 6%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 11%
Sat 11/14 13%
Sun 11/15 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DAY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAY?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DAY that day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
DAY usually runs smoothly
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAY (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.