Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

AA 774 · LGA → MIA

departs 5:33 PM ET · arrives 8:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±12 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
31%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.76 in

MIA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 774 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?