Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 774 · LGA → MIA

departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 8:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ LGA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.30 in

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 774 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?