Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 938 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

AA 938 · PHL → CLT

departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 4:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at PHL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.20 in

CLT (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 938 · PHL → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?