Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 938 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 938 · PHL → CLT

departs 3:02 PM ET · arrives 4:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 533 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling533 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.02 in

CLT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 938 · PHL → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?