Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1789 · MIA → HAV
departs 1:55 PM ET · arrives 3:14 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 11/11 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 23%
Sat 11/14 25%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at HAV more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at HAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HAV?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HAV
↑
MIA is busy at that time
↓
Arrivals into HAV at that hour are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
HAV (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.