Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1886
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Today
DL 1886 · SNA → SLC
departs 1:22 PM PT · arrives 4:19 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from SNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.