Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2576 · DCA → MIA
departs 1:41 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 11/10 24%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 33%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DCA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.