Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
DL 2866 · MSP → EWR
departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 64%
Sat 11/14 31%
Sun 11/15 55%
Mon 11/16 43%
Tue 11/17 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
77%
chance · ±20 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
77%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
77%
Yes 77%
No 23%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.