Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
DL 2866 · MSP → EWR
departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 11/12 77%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 31%
Sun 11/15 55%
Mon 11/16 43%
Tue 11/17 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.