Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2895
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2895 · EWR → MSP
departs 2:28 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 11/10 22%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 43%
Sun 11/15 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.22 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.