Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 5251 · DCA → ORD
departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 9:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 11/11 42%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 38%
Sat 11/14 38%
Sun 11/15 52%
Mon 11/16 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,567 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.11 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.