Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 1499 · MDW → DCA
departs 2:08 PM CT · arrives 5:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 33%
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.