Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1499 · MDW → DCA
departs 2:07 PM CT · arrives 5:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 44%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.