Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1851 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 1851 · LAS → MIA

departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 8:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at LAS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1851 · LAS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?