Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3181 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 3181 · MIA → DCA

departs 12:26 PM ET · arrives 3:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3181 · MIA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?