Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 795 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 795 · DCA → CLT

departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 4:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 795 · DCA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?