Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2594
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
DL 2594 · MSP → PHL
departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 6:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 34%
Mon 11/16 20%
Tue 11/17 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.