WN 1516 · DCA → BNA

departs 7:36 PM ET · arrives 8:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1516 · DCA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?