Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1516 · DCA → BNA
departs 7:37 PM ET · arrives 8:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 32%
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 31%
Thu 11/19 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.