Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2715 · MIA → MCI
departs 3:06 PM ET · arrives 5:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 44%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 35%
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.