AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

took off 9:01 PM ET · expected to land 10:43 PM CT (scheduled 8:04 PM ET → 10:23 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

82% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?