AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 10:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?