OO 6436 · PHX → TUS

departs 8:16 PM MT · arrives 9:17 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +46 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
48%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ TUS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6436 · PHX → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?