Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
OO 6436 · PHX → TUS
departs 9:52 PM MT · arrives 10:52 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 22%
Tue 11/17 19%
Wed 11/18 21%
Thu 11/19 32%
Fri 11/20 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.