Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
OO 6436 · PHX → TUS
departs 8:13 PM MT · arrives 9:14 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Sun 11/15 24%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 19%
Wed 11/18 21%
Thu 11/19 32%
Fri 11/20 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.