Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1144 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 1144 · EWR → MSP

departs 2:01 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,533 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1144 · EWR → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?