UA 8212 · SFO → PDX

took off 6:26 PM PT · landed 7:40 PM PT (scheduled 4:39 PM PT → 6:37 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PDX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

PDX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8212 · SFO → PDX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PDX?