Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 1817 · DEN → SFO
departs 7:44 PM MT · arrives 9:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 91%
Mon 11/16 52%
Tue 11/17 59%
Wed 11/18 47%
Thu 11/19 55%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±14 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.04 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.