Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1817 · DEN → SFO
departs 6:19 PM MT · arrives 8:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Sat 11/14 58%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 52%
Tue 11/17 59%
Wed 11/18 47%
Thu 11/19 55%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
91%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
91%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
62%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
91%
Yes 91%
No 9%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed – in 24h
–
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
9%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
36%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 6.66667 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.