Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 1817 · DEN → SFO
departs 6:20 PM MT · arrives 7:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sun 11/15 93%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 59%
Wed 11/18 47%
Thu 11/19 55%
Fri 11/20 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±17 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.