Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow

AA 1153 · CLT → SAT

departs 8:46 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1153 · CLT → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?