Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 1153 · CLT → SAT

departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 10:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1153 · CLT → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?