AA 1690 · MIA → MSP

departs 8:39 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1690 · MIA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?