Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
DL 2866 · EWR → MSP
departs 7:09 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17 40%
Wed 11/18 45%
Thu 11/19 45%
Fri 11/20 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.