Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 2866 · EWR → MSP
departs 6:08 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sun 11/15 46%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 40%
Wed 11/18 45%
Thu 11/19 45%
Fri 11/20 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.