Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 225 · SNA → LAS
departs 3:32 PM PT · arrives 4:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 34%
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 27%
Thu 11/19 53%
Fri 11/20 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 9 mi
Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.