Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 225 · SNA → LAS
departs 3:32 PM PT · arrives 4:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 27%
Thu 11/19 53%
Fri 11/20 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±11 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.