Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 225 · SNA → LAS
departs 4:07 PM PT · arrives 5:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Mon 11/16 39%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 27%
Thu 11/19 53%
Fri 11/20 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.11 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.