Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1646 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

AA 1646 · DCA → CHS

departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 10:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CHS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1646 · DCA → CHS

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHS?