Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 915 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 915 · MIA → BOG

departs 6:42 PM ET · arrives 10:21 PM -05

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 915 · MIA → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?