Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Monday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4090 SCHEDULED

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

MQ 4090 · TLH → MIA

departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from TLH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TLH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4090 · TLH → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?