Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4090
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
MQ 4090 · TLH → MIA
departs 7:24 PM ET · arrives 8:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/16 15%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 20%
Thu 11/19 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±10 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
7pm departures from TLH are usually not late
Weather at each end
TLH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.