Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1332 at 13:20, 27%.

Safest bet today WN 1332 ATL 13:20 → BWI 15:27 · 27% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1080 ATL 16:06 → BWI 18:09 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1332 Southwest	ATL 13:20	BWI 15:27	27%	5%	0.3%	no record
WN 4275 Southwest	ATL 13:30	BWI 15:20	31%	6%	0.3%	no record
DL 2590 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:45	BWI 00:39	36%	9%	0.6%	78%worse than usual
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:02	BWI 15:53	38%	8%	0.4%	81%worse than usual
WN 3760 Southwest	ATL 22:30	BWI 00:35	38%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 452 Southwest	ATL 22:45	BWI 00:45	38%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 2670 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:36	BWI 23:42	40%	9%	0.6%	69%
DL 2928 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:57	BWI 20:03	44%	11%	0.5%	72%worse than usual
WN 4778 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 18:15	BWI 20:10	46%	9%	0.4%	51%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	BWI 17:15	46%	9%	0.5%	69%worse than usual
WN 1106 Southwest	ATL 18:55	BWI 21:00	47%	8%	0.3%	no record
F9 2634 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 13:38	BWI 15:34	47%	19%	0.8%	58%
DL 1257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:30	BWI 21:26	51%	10%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
F9 4712 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:17	BWI 23:17	51%	20%	1.5%	46%
F9 1080 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:06	BWI 18:09	53%	20%	1.0%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON